The new Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook 2026 is here!
Maarten van Dijk
CEO – SkyNRG
We are proud to present the sixth edition of SkyNRG’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market Outlook, developed for the second consecutive year in close collaboration with ICF.
The SAF Market Outlook started in 2020 as an internal document to guide our long-term strategy. We were in the early development phase of DSL-01, our first SAF production plant based on HEFA technology, and exploring opportunities to develop additional plants using advanced biomass and e-SAF pathways. We decided to make part of our Market Outlook analysis publicly available to contribute to the general understanding and the momentum of the SAF industry.
Fast forward to today: the SAF market is maturing with EU and UK mandates now in force, providing the long-term demand certainty needed to scale supply. SkyNRG started construction on DSL-01 earlier this year, marking an important step in our transition to becoming an owner and operator of SAF production capacity.
The annual Market Outlook continues to guide our strategy and decision-making. This year, the analysis underscores the continued need to diversify feedstocks and technologies as the market scales rapidly, driven by regulation as well as macroeconomic trends reinforcing the strategic case for SAF. Robust policy frameworks and targeted support for offtakers, technology developers, and infrastructure players are essential to keep SAF growth on track.
SkyNRG with ICF – 2026 SAF Market Outlook report
Executive Summary
2025 marked a major step change in SAF market development, as the industry transitioned from primarily voluntary uptake toward a compliance-driven market. With EU and UK mandates now in force and more countries advancing policy frameworks, regulation is providing the long-term demand certainty needed to scale supply. Supplied SAF volumes doubled again to approximately 2 Mt (0.7 Bgal) in 2025 (from 1 Mt (0.3 Bgal) in 2024), with demand expected to reach 12.8 Mt (4.2 Bgal) by 2030 under our central scenario. The rapid scale-up of mandated markets has also started to expose practical market formation challenges around pricing transparency, infrastructure, and feedstock availability, reflecting the complexities of scaling a new global fuel market at pace.
Intensifying geopolitical instability, trade fragmentation and energy insecurity are increasingly shaping how regions approach SAF development. As a result, the market is increasingly driven by diverging regional strategies. Europe is building around demand certainty and de-risking measures, the United States around incentives and protectionism, while Asia is rapidly scaling production capacity through industrial policy. Vulnerabilities in fossil fuel supply chains are accelerating these trends and reinforce the strategic case for SAF, which, when produced from domestic resources, can strengthen resilience and reduce exposure to imported fossil fuels.
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SAF Demand
How much SAF is needed to meet policies, targets and ambitions globally?
SAF demand is increasingly shaped by energy security and industrial strategy, alongside aviation decarbonization. The disruption to oil markets through the Hormuz crisis has increased awareness of the role SAF can play in improving energy resilience, supplementing national supplies with fuel produced from domestic feedstocks and refineries. This reinforces national initiatives to capture more domestic value by moving up the value chain from feedstock production and collection to SAF refining, while creating new markets for farmers, feedstock suppliers and industrial communities. This is leading to more complex policy approaches, for example, differences in mandate design, eligible pathways, support mechanisms, and the treatment of domestic production versus imports.
Methodology
The ICF SAF Demand Model is built on a detailed, bottom-up assessment of global aviation activity, fleets, and fuel use. Passenger and cargo demand are forecast at a country-level, combining short-term, capacity-driven projections with longer-term, macroeconomic demand drivers. These traffic forecasts are then translated into flight activity and jet fuel consumption, taking account of fleet composition, aircraft and operational efficiency improvements, and the pace of fleet renewal. This leads to a projected jet fuel demand in 2050 of 460 Mt (152 Bgal), a roughly 4.5% increase to last year’s estimate driven by a higher baseline demand in 2025, a refinement on cargo movements and expectations of a slower fleet renewal.
Existing and emerging SAF policies and targets are assessed at country-level and applied to the projected country-level jet fuel baseline to estimate future SAF demand. To reflect uncertainty around future policy development, implementation and realization, three scenarios are developed:
- Existing Policies assumes SAF demand grows only to meet requirements under policies that are already legally in force, representing a lower-bound outcome with limited voluntary uptake.
- Current Trends reflects delivery of targets that have been clearly committed to and are supported by policies or initiatives under development, providing a central case if progress continues broadly in line with recent momentum.
- Accelerated Action assumes the introduction of additional policies and initiatives that significantly increase SAF deployment, consistent with faster progress towards aviation’s net-zero objectives.
Download the full report for in depth on SAF Demand
SAF Capacity Outlook
What are the main SAF capacity development trends, and are we on track to meet demand?
Despite geopolitical and economic turbulence, the global SAF capacity outlook remained relatively resilient over the past year, supported by continued policy momentum and new de-risking measures across several regions. At the same time, delays and bankability challenges persist, particularly for advanced pathways, even as commercial lenders are showing growing interest in sufficiently de-risked SAF projects. The section also highlights the intensifying pressure on HEFA feedstocks and the urgent need to accelerate advanced pathways ahead of the expected post-2030 supply gap.
Methodology
This analysis focuses on projected SAF capacity by incorporating the nameplate capacity of each facility in the year it is expected to come online. For the purposes of consistency and comparability, we do not adjust for potential ramp-up periods or for facilities operating below full capacity. As such, the figures presented reflect theoretical maximum output, rather than actual production volumes. This is also why historical numbers are higher compared to actual SAF production in that year—it reflects the SAF capacity that was installed at the end of that year.
Global SAF capacity is expected to reach 18.5 Mt (6.1 Bgal) by 2030. RD switching can flex some capacity up or down
Download the full report for in depth on SAF Capacity Outlook
Fueling Energy Resilience through SAF
How can SAF contribute to energy resilience in countries dependent on fossil fuel imports?
Geopolitical developments over the past year have reinforced that SAF carries broad strategic relevance, having brought energy security and fuel resilience back to the center of political and industrial debate. Recent disruptions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have highlighted a structural vulnerability in modern fuel systems: they have largely been optimized for efficiency and cost rather than resilience. Aviation in particular, remains highly exposed due to its dependence on globally traded crude oil and refined jet fuel markets.
SAF can play a strategic role by broadening the aviation fuel supply base, creating a more diversified and flexible fuel system. Where SAF production is based on domestically available resources and supported by regional supply chains, it can reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels and strengthen resilience against external supply shocks.
Europe, Asia and Oceania are particularly exposed to imports of crude oil or jet-fuel
Download the 2026 Market Outlook Report
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Acknowledgements
This report is the result of collaboration across all areas of SkyNRG and we want to thank all of those who have contributed to creating it.
Contributors
SkyNRG: Iris Warnaar, Tom Berg, Charlotte Taets van Amerongen, Anna Liznerova, Daisy de Hoop, Loek Michon, Hannah Klasens, supported by Oskar Meijerink, Mandy van Dasler, Sierk de Jong, Floor Vogels, Roosa Virkkunen and Helena Mitchell
ICF: Mark Kelly, Andrew Ure, Aron Bell, Andre J Couture, Yasar Yetiskin, Jane Thompson and Alastair Blanshard
Design
Jonathan Roorda, VideoMatic
Development
Sabin Aganencei
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